As we come to the end of the 2024-2025 breeding stock sales season and move into breeding season, here are the salient themes that I gleaned off of my trips to the sales and time spent with many throughout the industry.

Less is more. Less broodmares, less overhead, less expenses and less of a headache trying to figure out how to manage a larger herd. I’ve trended my business that way for several years now, but this year it seems to be trendier. Just about every breeder I’ve spoken with (save some newer participants) is tightening the belts and sharpening their pencils. Smaller, more efficient broodmare bands comprised of either known producers or high-ceiling prospects. The proof should be in the Jockey Club Report of Mares Bred released this October.

Next, the stallion farms have finally entered the conversation about working with the breeders in terms of mitigating what have been skyrocketing stud fees.

What I mean by this is that in the last five years or so, stud fees have gone up disproportionately to the expenses breeders face to bring horses to market and the races. I’m not arguing that the Into Mischiefs and Gun Runners of the world don’t deserve their high fees, but rather, the first-crop stallion market has gotten to be a challenge along with the market for early success stallions.

That dynamic has destroyed the market for second-crop sires and made the always challenging bubble years (crops three and four) even more difficult to navigate.

About two years ago, I lamented within the industry that something had to change, but there was very little movement on this until now. Stallion farms (most notably Spendthrift, but including several others) have adjusted their fees mid-season on some of their less popular stallions, including young second-croppers and established sires. That’s a great start and good incentive for breeders, but it will only work if some first-crop fees fall more into line where they really should be moving forward.

Mr. B. Wayne Hughes was an innovator with Share The Upside, Breed Secure and other programs to ensure healthy books in crops two, three and four, and give breeders a fighting chance. The popularity of these programs, and others like them, has led to them being adjusted and skewered more in favor of early returns for the stallion farms and syndicates, and have defeated the purpose of such programs.

Now, we’re at a point where the stallions put into these are often viewed as less desirable, and the breeders are taking the hit.

The correction needed is stud fees moving forward that take into account not only creating demand and excitement in the first crop, but also being priced correctly so that severe fee drops aren’t necessary in year two and moving forward.

Protect the breeders who believe in your unproven stallion with some degree of stud fee certainty to help keep them in business and fill the books of those sires who are not in the “latest and greatest” category.

Finally, the last recurring theme of this breeding season to me is the chatter about the rebirth of regional breeding programs.

Yes, the industry in California and Florida is facing immense challenges right now in terms of racetrack ownership and the future of these venues. But, other regional programs in states like Arkansas, Virginia, New York and others seem to be drawing more behind-the-scenes interest from breeders as Kentucky gets more competitive (with amazing purses) and the national sales markets tighten up.

Regional programs which offer honest purses, flexible breeding requirements (breed back rules, residency, etc) are getting a lot of chatter among commercial breeders. Is it better to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond? It’s a possible trend to watch out for, even with the uncertainty of a couple of regions that have 1/ST racing hanging over their heads.

That’s just a few of my observations in what I think will be a rapidly changing breeding market in the next several years: smaller, more efficient and with some alternative opportunities. The industry desperately needs more breeders with more mares and less concentration of programs and results geared towards only a select few at the high end.

The market – with shrinking foal crops, smaller sales and diminishing stud books – is speaking. I hope that the stud farms, sales companies, and breeders’ associations are listening.